3rd Grade Likely and Unlikely Events Worksheet: Marbles and Apples

Some things will surely happen, and some things never can. This 3rd grade likely and unlikely events worksheet has three items, numbered 1 to 3, on grid paper. In each item, someone picks one thing at random, without looking, from the picture that sits just above the four answer boxes. Mary picks a marble from seven blue and striped marbles. Lucy picks an apple from a pile of green apples. Charles picks a marble from a bright mix of green, orange, purple and striped ones that form a little ring. Under each picture, four blue boxes read certain, likely, unlikely and impossible, and your child ticks the one that fits best. Page two shows the ticks in pink, with a short reason under items 1 and 3.

Three picks, three reasons

In item 1, there are 4 blue marbles and 3 striped ones out of 7. So a blue marble is likely, because there are more blue ones than striped ones, but it is not certain. In item 2, every apple is green, so a green apple is certain. In item 3, there is no silver marble at all, so it is impossible. All the answers in the key are right.

Notice that the page uses only three of the four words. Unlikely never comes up, so you can add an item for it at home. These chance words are an early step towards probability, which your child will study with numbers much later in school.

At the table: count before you tick

Before ticking, ask your child to count each color in the picture. Then they ask two questions. Is there any of this color? Is there more of it than the rest? The first answer rules out impossible, and the second one splits likely from unlikely, which covers almost every case on the page.

The text has a few slips. The name is "Marry" on page one but "Mary" on page two. Item 1 asks "How possible is it", while "How likely is it" is right. Item 2 says "Lucy selected apples" for "Lucy picked an apple". The key also calls the orange striped marbles "red marbles".

After the page: a bag of socks

Put 5 white socks and 1 black sock in a bag. Then ask your child whether picking a white sock without looking is likely or unlikely, and ask them to say why. Next, take out the black sock and ask again. Finally, check the three answers with the answer key on page two.